5181. America is Trapped in a Burning Tesla
Paul Krugman critiques the complacency of business leaders regarding Trump's policies and highlights the negative economic consequences of his tariffs and Musk's management of federal agencies.
5182. ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024
Bill McBride discusses the record rise in property insurance costs in 2024, driven by natural disaster losses, significantly impacting overall mortgage payments.
5183. Designing your diff in diff with a checklist, step 2: counting the treated counties
Scott Cunningham discusses the importance of identifying and counting treated units in difference-in-differences analysis for causal inference in research.
5184. Macro Lecture Notes on Mass Deportation/Immigration Restriction
Menzie Chinn discusses the economic impacts of mass deportation and immigration restriction, including effects on the labor force and social security.
5185. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Calculated Risk discusses a significant increase in mortgage applications and declining mortgage rates, citing data from Joel Kan of the MBA.
5186. A Sixth Double-Fluke Switch Point For A Triple-Switching Example
Robert Vienneau discusses the analysis of switch points in economic models, focusing on the implications of double-fluke cases and their effects on profits and output.
5187. Why Tariff Inflation Won't Be Just a Blip
The discussion highlights how tariff-driven inflation is likely to persist due to supply-side factors, price stickiness, and the complexities of economic policy responses.
5188. The Outlook for Grocery Prices and Eggs (pre-tariff)
Menzie Chinn analyzes grocery price forecasts and egg prices, highlighting potential increases due to tariffs on Mexican imports.
5189. The Evolution of Sanctions
Scott Sumner discusses the changing nature of sanctions, particularly U.S. secondary sanctions, and their political implications over time.
5190. The Parable of Peanut the Memecoin
Alexi Horowitz-Ghazi discusses the rise of memecoins and their implications in the attention economy through the story of a famous animal influencer.
5191. Is the Panama Canal a rip-off?
Wailin Wong examines the costs of using the Panama Canal and the political tensions between the U.S. and Panama regarding its management and fees.
5192. China's parliament opens with confidence about the economy despite tariffs, headwinds
John Ruwitch discusses China's economic growth target of around 5% amidst domestic challenges and U.S. tariffs on imports.
5193. Is China inventing big important things?
Noah Smith discusses China's technological advancements and innovation, contrasting it with historical powers while questioning the impact of autocracy on creativity and scientific progress.
5194. Browbeating Trump’s Bete Noire into Submission via Trade War
Menzie Chinn critiques Trump's handling of trade policies and their implications for the economy and inflation.
5195. GDPNow Assuming No Import Effects: Still Close to Stall Speed
Menzie Chinn analyzes GDP growth projections while excluding import effects, highlighting a near-stall growth rate for Q1 2025.
5196. Review of the Strong Gods: Some Positive Notes
Kevin Corcoran discusses R. R. Reno's arguments about strong gods and their dual nature, emphasizing the importance of acknowledging their dangers alongside their potential benefits.
5197. OPM alters memo about probationary employees but does not order mass firings reversed
Andrea Hsu discusses the OPM's revision of a memo regarding probationary employees and the lack of reinstatement for those previously fired.
5198. High and Low Stress in the Workplace: A World War II Example
Conversable Economist discusses Oded Stark's analysis of stress management strategies in American and German fighter pilots during WWII and their impact on performance.
5199. Soybeans (Again!)
Menzie Chinn discusses the predictive power of soybean futures prices and their relationship to spot prices, referencing previous research and statistical analysis.
5200. Repeating a Historical Experience of Autarky?
Pierre Lemieux discusses historical autarky, particularly in China, and contrasts it with Western trade openness, highlighting economic implications of isolationist policies.