1801. You are no longer the smartest type of thing on Earth
The discussion centers on the rapid advancement of AI, its growing capabilities, and the implications for human intelligence and job markets, particularly in software engineering.
1802. Ten Days to 2025Q4 Advance Release: Nowcasts, Forecasts
Menzie Chinn discusses GDP growth forecasts, emphasizing the importance of final sales and the impact of inventory accumulation on economic projections.
1803. Israel accuses two of using military secrets to place Polymarket bets
Bobby Allyn discusses an indictment in Tel Aviv involving individuals accused of using military secrets for betting on a prediction market.
1804. Claude Code 18: When the Reclassification Is Massive But the Trends Don’t Change, Something Interesting Is Happening
An exploration of reclassifying congressional speeches reveals significant label changes without affecting overall trends, prompting questions about data consistency and analysis methods.
1805. I Regret to Inform You that the FDA is FDAing Again
The post critiques the FDA's recent refusal to review Moderna's mRNA influenza vaccine application, highlighting issues of regulatory uncertainty and political influence on health decisions.
1806. That Was Then/This is Now
Alex Tabarrok discusses the evolving perspectives on economic and political issues, highlighting perceived contradictions in current debates.
1807. Making America Stagnate Again
An argument that recent job growth data reveals stagnation in the economy, critiquing political narratives around immigration and employment under the current administration.
1808. 6 GOP reps defy Trump to block Canadian tariffs. And, student loan defaults rise
Suzanne Nuyen discusses six GOP representatives who opposed Trump’s Canadian tariffs and the rise in student loan defaults.
1809. Heritage Chief Economist Interprets Biden vs. Trump Employment Trends
An argument that compares employment trends under Biden and Trump, highlighting differences in private and government employment growth during their respective terms.
1810. US Budget Deficits: Spitting Into the Wind
An argument that US budget deficits and rising federal debt present long-term economic challenges, driven by increasing interest payments and their impact on growth and spending.
1811. Update: A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession
Claudia Sahm discusses the stalled payroll growth and recent employment data, highlighting a stronger-than-expected hiring rebound and the challenges of measuring economic dynamics.
1812. Business Cycle Indicators
An argument that various economic indicators, including employment and production metrics, are analyzed to assess business cycle trends and revisions.
1813. A Levels Perspective on the Employment Situation Release
Menzie Chinn analyzes the recent nonfarm payroll employment data, highlighting discrepancies and trends in employment growth and revisions in forecasts.
1814. The Banality of MAGA Evil
An argument that the true nature of conspiracies in MAGA politics is less about grand schemes and more about the incompetence and moral failings of key figures.
1815. Roundup #77: The Fix-Everything Button
The post discusses public safety improvements in transit systems, the impact of AI on job markets, and the need for effective measures to maintain public order.
1816. U.S. unexpectedly adds 130,000 jobs in January after a weak 2025
Scott Horsley discusses the unexpected addition of 130,000 jobs in January and the revised weaker job growth from the previous year.
1817. My simple model of fertility decline
Tyler Cowen discusses the decline in global fertility rates due to improved birth control and changing societal preferences regarding family size.
1818. The singularity won't be gentle
An argument that the anticipated rapid advancements in AI will lead to significant and unpredictable political consequences, challenging the notion of a gentle transition to a technologically advanced society.
1819. Households under Debt Stress: Two Pictures
An argument that examines the financial pressures on households and presents two contrasting perspectives on debt stress and its implications.
1820. Miran: No “…material inflation from tariffs.”
Menzie Chinn discusses the implications of tariffs on inflation, arguing against concerns about significant macroeconomic inflation from tariffs, referencing various economic studies.